Ditch the Dragon, Bet on India: The Trade Pivot We Need

1999 was the year of hubris—a time when the US, EU, and WTO strutted on the world stage, convinced they had cracked the code. China's WTO entry was heralded as a golden ticket to prosperity. The US, under Clinton and Bush, envisioned $600 billion in trade while dreaming that democracy would bloom in the East. The EU, led by Blair and Chirac, cooed over stability and new markets. Even WTO director Mike Moore proclaimed, "Prosperity for all!" They preached commerce as the cure for communism, blinded by their own arrogance.

No one did their homework. Not on Mao—whose Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution claimed tens of millions of lives—nor on China's 2,000-year history of feigning weakness to win. They bought into the narrative of "poor China," oblivious to the Han DNA screaming control, not compliance. It may be time to Ditch the Dragon, Bet on India.

The fallout? A dinosaur loose in the global economy. China's GDP is projected to hit $35 trillion by 2045, powered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Its debt traps—Sri Lanka losing a port, Africa owing over $1 trillion—have rewritten the rules of global influence.

Meanwhile, US jobs vanished—2 million by 2011. The EU grapples with a $400 billion trade deficit by 2025. WTO rules? China laughed while establishing Uyghur camps and amplifying BRI chaos to $5 trillion by 2050. In just a decade after WTO entry, China flexed—$500 billion in foreign direct investment by 2020, world-ruling ambitions by 2025. Arrogance birthed a beast.

Ditch the Dragon, Bet on India: The Trade Pivot We Need Now

It's time for a pivot—India is the answer. With a population of 1.5 billion, a median age of 35, and a $15 trillion GDP projected by 2045, India offers hustle instead of traps. The US is gearing up for a $1 trillion trade relationship by 2045 (up from $200 billion in 2025). Tech hubs like Hyderabad drive $500 billion in IT exports. Pharma supplies 60% of US generics, while ports like Mumbai undergo $50 billion upgrades. India boasts abundant resources like iron, coal, and thorium. Manufacturing divides strategically: the US pulls back steel, chips, and cars ($500 billion), while India handles textiles, generics, and solar ($700 billion). Crucially, India avoids BRI-style debt traps, balancing pride with practicality.

By 2050, India’s GDP will hit $20 trillion, with poverty dropping to 15%, lifting 100 million people out of hardship. This collaboration works because India’s strength is in its chaos. Unlike China's rapid imperial ambitions, India's diversity—1.2 billion Hindus, 225 million Muslims, and countless others—keeps monoculture at bay. Together, the US and India will siphon off $300 billion from BRI, shadow the Malacca Strait, and thrive as global partners.

Ditch the Dragon, Bet on India: The Trade Pivot We Need to Win

China's Han-centric ambitions saw it spiral into rapid imperialism—dominating through debt and cultural imposition. Meanwhile, India's chaotic diversity proves resilient, both economically and socially. A US-India alliance diminishes BRI's influence, shifts jobs back to US factories, and taps into India’s 800-million-strong workforce. The EU remains sidelined, stuck in its own arrogance, while volatility declines. Islamist extremism loses momentum, and China's unchecked dominance is restrained—not crushed, but humbled.

The Lesson

The US, EU, and WTO acted as gods in 1999, blindly believing that commerce could reform communism. But China didn't just eat the hand that fed it—it consumed the arm, the table, and the house, building a $35 trillion empire in the process. Now, India offers a chance to rewrite the rules. With humility replacing hubris, the future belongs to a leaner, scrappier partnership. Wake up—the dragon fed on arrogance, but the fighter thrives on strategy.