Shutdown Sparks Fly: Will We Plummet Off the $1.9T Cliff?

As the federal government grinds to a partial halt in the first shutdown since 2019, Americans are staring down a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2025 alone. With national debt surpassing $36 trillion—equivalent to 100% of GDP—and interest payments alone devouring $892 billion this year, the writing is on the wall: We're barreling toward a fiscal cliff that could make the 2008 recession look like a speed bump. The culprit? A spending spree that ballooned federal outlays from $4.45 trillion in FY 2019 (pre-COVID) to a projected $7.0 trillion in 2025—a staggering 57% nominal increase, or 25-30% after inflation. This isn't sustainable; it's suicidal.

It's time for a minimal reset: Roll federal spending back to pre-COVID baselines, adjusted for inflation and population growth. No more excuses about "unprecedented times." The emergency is over, but the bill is eternal. This isn't about austerity for austerity's sake—it's about reclaiming fiscal sanity, pruning pandemic-era bloat, and redirecting taxpayer dollars from wasteful intermediaries like NGOs and biased media outlets. Here's why we must act now, and how to do it without crashing the economy.

The Pandemic Spending Binge: Temporary Fixes Turned Permanent Traps

COVID-19 was a crisis that demanded action, but what started as bridge loans morphed into a permanent bridge to bankruptcy. Federal outlays spiked to $6.55 trillion in FY 2020, fueled by $5.6 trillion in relief packages. Fast-forward to 2025: Spending hovers at 23.3% of GDP, up from 21% pre-pandemic, with mandatory programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid ballooning 73% nominally due to expanded entitlements. Welfare spending alone is set to surge 34% over the next decade—$2.2 trillion more than pre-COVID trends—despite no corresponding rise in poverty rates.

Worse, those "temporary" jobs created in the frenzy? They should never have been greenlit without rigorous pre-approval tied to sunset clauses. Federal hiring exploded post-2020, with agencies like HHS and FEMA adding thousands of positions for contact tracing, vaccine distribution, and aid processing—many labeled as term or temporary under 5 CFR Part 316.  By mid-2024, federal government jobs accounted for a disproportionate share of "new" employment growth, masking private-sector weakness and creating an illusion of economic strength. These roles—often in clinical research (0601 series) or disaster relief—were meant to expire, but extensions became the norm, bloating the 2.2 million civilian workforce by 10-15% in affected agencies.

Why the outrage? Pre-COVID planning could have built modular staffing—surge capacity via contractors or state partnerships—without embedding these costs into the baseline. Now, we're stuck with permanent payrolls for transient needs, driving up non-interest spending by 14% just to stabilize debt by 2050. Returning to 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted to ~$5.46 trillion) would save $1.5 trillion annually, curbing debt-to-GDP from a projected 156% in 2055 to under 100%.  It's not cutting grandma's Social Security; it's ending the addiction to emergency spending as a default mode.

Category	FY 2019 (Pre-COVID)	FY 2025 (Current)	Savings from Reset
Total Outlays	$4.45T (21% GDP)	$7.0T (23.3% GDP)	$1.5T/year
Mandatory (Entitlements)	$2.84T	$4.9T	$500B (via block grants)
Discretionary	$1.34T	$1.6T	$260B (trim redundancies)
Interest on Debt	$0.38T	$0.89T	N/A (but stabilizes)

Data: CBO Budget Outlook 2025-2035 

Claw Back NGO Slush Funds: Taxpayers Aren't Venture Capitalists

Compounding the bloat? Billions funneled to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that treat federal grants like personal piggy banks. From 2021-2025, the Biden-Harris era outsourced migrant processing and "climate justice" to NGOs, pumping millions for border "shelter" that vanished into admin fees.

Examples abound: UN-affiliated NGOs, flush with U.S. taxpayer cash, facilitated illegal immigration surges while executives pocketed six-figure salaries—some tied to principal shareholders via opaque foundations. In 2025, House probes revealed over 200 NGOs received $ billions for "humanitarian aid," only to redirect portions to political activism or high-overhead ops, with one group suing the Trump admin after DOGE flagged its $1.6 billion in prior funding as wasteful. Another scandal: USAID grants to anti-Netanyahu NGOs in Israel, allegedly funneled through U.S. foundations to protest movements—$30 million+ that critics say breached nonprofit rules by prioritizing politics over aid.

This isn't charity; it's cronyism. A pre-COVID reset demands ironclad audits: No grant release until 100% traceability, with clawbacks for any funds siphoned to shareholders or unrelated agendas. Trump's February 2025 EO already mandates reviews, slashing DEI and foreign aid slush funds—saving $20-30 billion yearly. Nonprofits exist for the public good, not as taxpayer-subsidized PACs.

Defund Biased Media: No More Tax Dollars for Echo Chambers

Finally, why subsidize one-sided narratives? The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) funnels $535 million in 2025 taxpayer dollars to NPR and PBS—outlets accused of left-wing bias that erodes journalistic trust. Trump's May 2025 EO rightly directs CPB to cease funding, calling it "outdated" in a media landscape bursting with diverse voices. House hearings in March grilled NPR/PBS execs on "radical" coverage, with provisions in spending bills stripping their subsidies—zeroing out $57.9 million for NPR's satellite system alone.

NPR gets ~1% directly from feds, but stations rely on 8-10% CPB grants—totaling tens of millions that prop up what critics call "Democrat in-kind contributions." PBS fares worse at 15%. Amid lawsuits from CPB and NPR claiming "unlawful" interference, the core issue remains: Taxpayers shouldn't bankroll "monsters" peddling partisanship, as Trump put it.

Redirect to neutral infrastructure—like broadband for rural stations—and let markets decide winners.

The Path Forward: Reset Without the Wreck

A minimal pre-COVID rollback isn't reckless—it's restorative. Start with DOGE-led zero-based budgeting: Justify every line item against 2019 baselines, retrain displaced workers via expanded WIOA ($10 billion boost for 300,000 feds into private-sector roles), and enforce single-subject bills to ban new programs. Risks like short-term GDP dips (1-2%) are dwarfed by long-term gains: Stabilized debt, lower taxes, and a leaner government focused on essentials.

America thrived pre-COVID with balanced books and innovation-fueled growth. We've lingered in emergency mode too long, enriching insiders while families foot the bill. Congress, heed the shutdown's warning: Reset now, or the cliff claims us all. Taxpayers deserve better—demand it.

Lynn is a contributor at WecuMedia, sparking circuits on fiscal policy and government efficiency. Views are her own, informed by CBO data and ongoing shutdown realities.