Wisconsin Votes: Supreme Court Election and Voter ID Initiative – The High Stakes for Republicans

Wisconsin Voters to Decide their fate

On April 1, 2025, Wisconsin voters face a pivotal moment with two major decisions on the ballot: the election for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and a voter ID initiative aimed at embedding photo ID requirements into the state constitution. The Supreme Court race pits conservative Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel against liberal Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, with the outcome poised to shape the state’s judicial landscape for the next decade. For Republicans, the stakes couldn’t be higher—here’s why this election demands their attention and turnout, and what could happen if Crawford secures the win.

What Happens if Susan Crawford Takes the Court?

If Susan Crawford wins, the Wisconsin Supreme Court would maintain its current 4-3 liberal majority, replacing retiring liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley. This outcome would solidify liberal control over the state’s highest court at least until 2026, when the next conservative-held seat comes up for election. The implications of this shift are profound, particularly in three key areas:

1. Redistricting and Congressional Power

   Wisconsin’s congressional maps, which determine the state’s representation in the U.S. House, could face a dramatic overhaul under a liberal court. The current maps, drawn after the 2020 census, have favored Republicans, yielding a 6-2 split in the state’s congressional delegation despite Wisconsin’s status as a closely divided swing state. A Crawford victory could pave the way for the court to strike down these maps as partisan gerrymanders—a move liberals have long sought. Posts on X and recent analyses suggest Democrats aim to flip multiple GOP-held seats, potentially shifting the balance of power in Congress. With national control of the House often hinging on a handful of seats, a redrawn map could hand Democrats an edge in future elections, undermining Republican influence in Washington.

2. Voter ID and Election Integrity

   The April 1 ballot also includes an initiative to enshrine Wisconsin’s voter ID law in the state constitution, a policy Republicans have championed as a safeguard against fraud. Crawford, who once called the law “draconian” and represented groups challenging it in 2011, has a history of opposing strict voter ID measures. While she’s softened her stance recently, noting the law’s evolution, her past positions fuel Republican fears that a liberal court could weaken or reinterpret election rules. If the voter ID amendment passes but faces legal challenges—as is likely given its contentious history—a Crawford-led court might strike it down or narrow its scope, potentially easing voting restrictions in ways that conservatives argue could compromise election security.

3. Policy Battles: Abortion, Unions, and Beyond

   Beyond elections, a liberal majority with Crawford could tip the scales on hot-button issues. The court is set to rule on a challenge to Wisconsin’s 175-year-old abortion ban, reactivated after Roe v. Wade’s fall in 2022. Crawford’s record defending Planned Parenthood suggests she’d favor expanding abortion access, a stark contrast to Schimel’s more reserved stance that it’s a voter issue. Similarly, the court may revisit Act 10, the 2011 law curbing public-sector unions, which has saved taxpayers billions but remains a liberal target. A Crawford win could lead to its repeal, triggering higher taxes and a resurgence of union power—outcomes Republicans see as fiscal and ideological threats.

   
   

Why the Stakes Are Sky-High for Republicans

For Republicans, this election is a do-or-die moment, and voter turnout is the linchpin. Here’s why mobilizing their base is critical:

• Preserving Congressional Advantage

  Wisconsin’s role as a swing state amplifies its national importance. Trump won here in 2024 by less than a percentage point, and the 2023 Supreme Court race saw liberals flip control by a wider margin. A Crawford victory could redraw maps to favor Democrats just as Trump’s second term unfolds, potentially thwarting his agenda in Congress. Republicans need Schimel to hold the line and protect their 6-2 congressional edge.

• Safeguarding Election Rules

  The voter ID initiative’s fate ties directly to the court’s makeup. Republicans view photo ID laws as essential to trust in elections, a sentiment echoed in Schimel’s campaign and Trump’s endorsement of him. A liberal court could not only jeopardize the amendment but also revisit past rulings, like the 2022 ban on ballot drop boxes, loosening voting processes in ways conservatives fear could dilute their electoral strength.

• Countering a Liberal Policy Shift

  With a Democratic governor and Republican legislature deadlocked, the Supreme Court has become Wisconsin’s policy battleground. Issues like abortion and Act 10 hinge on judicial rulings, and a Crawford win would lock in a liberal majority for years, advancing progressive priorities against Republican resistance. Schimel, backed by Trump and Elon Musk, represents a bulwark against this tide.

• Turnout Is Everything

  Historically, spring elections see lower turnout than presidential races—2 million voters are expected on April 1 versus 3.4 million in November 2024. Schimel’s camp predicts victory hinges on retaining Trump’s base, a sentiment echoed in X posts urging conservatives to “bank votes early.” Democrats, energized by frustration with Trump’s early term moves, are equally motivated. The side that mobilizes better wins, and Republicans can’t afford to sit this out.

  
  

The Bigger Picture

This isn’t just a state race—it’s a national bellwether. Spending has soared past $80 million, with Musk pouring in millions for Schimel and Democrats countering with heavy hitters like George Soros. The April 1 vote tests Republican momentum post-Trump’s 2024 win and Democratic resolve to claw back ground. For Republicans, losing the court risks ceding Wisconsin’s political future to liberals, from congressional seats to core policy fights. Schimel’s win keeps the court balanced or tilts it conservative, preserving GOP influence in a state that could decide America’s direction.

As the clock ticks down to April 1, Republicans must rally their voters. The alternative—a Crawford-led court—could reshape Wisconsin and ripple across the nation, making this election a fight they can’t afford to lose.